Year-end reflections and a look at the next financial service chapter
Year-end reflections in financial services often default to trend lists and forecasts. We took a different approach. Instead of cataloging what was new or loud in 2025, we focus on what proved durable—and what quietly stopped working.
This reflection looks at those questions through the lens of market data, industry structure, and operational reality, and outlines how Satchel is aligning its approach for 2026 around long-term partnerships, resilient infrastructure, and transparent economics.
2025 in review: When financial services stopped relying on momentum
2025 forced the financial services industry into a more disciplined phase. The optimism that carried many firms through the post-pandemic years gave way to a sharper focus on execution, efficiency, and resilience. Capital was still available, but it flowed selectively. Regulators moved from guidance to enforcement. Customers, meanwhile, became less tolerant of friction and more sensitive to pricing and reliability.
Global fintech investment data illustrates this shift clearly. According to KPMG’s Pulse of Fintech, total fintech investment reached $44.7 billion in the first half of 2025, marking the lowest first-half total since 2020. Importantly, this did not signal the end of innovation. Instead, it reflected a market that now expects viable business models, clear unit economics, and credible paths to scale.
Payments continued to provide a strong foundation. McKinsey’s Global Payments Report shows that despite slower growth in 2024, the payments sector still delivered approximately 7% average annual revenue growth between 2019 and 2024. This resilience reinforced a key reality of 2025: demand did not disappear, but the tolerance for inefficiency did.
Risk also re-entered the conversation in a more concrete way. The International Monetary Fund’s Global Financial Stability Report in October 2025 warned of heightened vulnerabilities tied to asset repricing, tighter financial conditions, and operational fragility. As a result, both regulators and boards shifted their focus from theoretical stress testing to practical questions about operational continuity, third-party dependencies, and execution under pressure.
The state of financial services today: Growth constrained by complexity
As the year closes, financial services are characterized by a paradox. On one hand, transaction volumes, digital adoption, and cross-border activity continue to grow. On the other, the infrastructure supporting this growth is under increasing strain.
Cross-border payments are a clear example. Market estimates referenced by the European Central Bank and the Bank for International Settlements suggest that cross-border payment flows could reach approximately €268 trillion by 2030, nearly double current levels. This expansion is driven by global e-commerce, platform-based business models, SME internationalization, and increased mobility of consumers and workers. However, scaling across borders introduces multiple layers of complexity, including regulatory fragmentation, currency conversion risk, settlement delays, and scheme-level pricing differences. These factors turn operational design into a strategic decision rather than a technical afterthought.
At the same time, the economics of payments are evolving. Boston Consulting Group estimates that transaction-related revenues will continue to grow at around 6% annually, while non-transaction revenues grow more slowly. This shift places greater pressure on transaction efficiency and cost control. As margins tighten, firms can no longer rely on volume alone to compensate for weak pricing models or hidden fee escalation.
Regulation further amplifies this pressure. Across major markets, regulators are converging on higher expectations for operational resilience, governance of third-party relationships, data protection, and the responsible use of automation and artificial intelligence. Cross-border payment failures are often caused by fragmented processes and weak governance rather than by limitations of technology itself, which means that compliance is no longer a launch-phase hurdle, but an ongoing constraint on growth if not properly integrated into operations.
What will differentiate winners in 2026
The businesses that succeed in 2026 will approach growth as an operational discipline rather than a purely commercial objective. They will design infrastructure that supports real cross-border scale, with clear visibility into settlement flows, liquidity requirements, and currency exposures. Rather than relying on static financial models, they will monitor unit economics in real time, tracking cost per transaction, pricing tier thresholds, fraud behavior, and corridor-specific performance.
Compliance will also play a central role in competitive positioning. Firms that embed regulatory expectations into their product and infrastructure design will experience fewer delays and less friction as they expand into new markets. Engaging regulators early and standardizing controls across jurisdictions will become a strategic advantage rather than an administrative burden.
Operational resilience will be equally critical. As payment systems become more interconnected, failures propagate faster and with greater impact. Regulators and customers alike now expect continuity even under stress. Business continuity planning, incident response capabilities, and rigorous partner due diligence will increasingly define customer trust and brand credibility.
The Satchel vision for 2026
The Satchel vision for 2026 is anchored in a clear principle: sustainable scale is built through trust, transparency, and operational readiness— not shortcuts.
A key focus for 2026 is strengthening collaboration with customers and partners. Rather than treating compliance, risk, and operational design as isolated functions, we work closely with clients to align these elements from the outset. This partnership-driven model helps customers avoid the common pitfalls of scaling: unexpected fee escalations, fragmented settlement chains, or compliance gaps that emerge only after growth accelerates.
We are also investing in operational clarity and predictability. We don’t view clear pricing structures, well-defined settlement flows, and robust partner due diligence as optional features, but as foundational elements of our platform. In a market where confidence is increasingly tied to reliability, this transparency becomes a competitive differentiator for both Satchel and our customers.
Preparing for what’s next
2025 removed many of the industry’s illusions. It demonstrated that growth without structure is fragile and that scale without discipline is costly. The opportunity in financial services remains substantial. Payments continue to grow, cross-border activity is accelerating, and digital business models are expanding into new markets.
However, the next chapter will belong to firms that build deliberately. Those that invest in infrastructure before volume, in governance before automation, and in economic clarity before expansion will thrive in 2026 and shape the trajectory of the industry moving forward.
